Saturday, May 1, 2010

04/30/10 MDT Risk Fail

Photogenic thunderstorm becoming
severe
at sunset in Peoria, IL

Friday, featured a MDT risk of severe weather across much of the Midwest extending through the Deep South. By mid-afternoon, I found myself targeting a Burlington, IA-to-Monmouth, IL line as convection along the cold front created a differential heating boundary. Destabilization quickly began to take place to the east of this boundary in west-central Illinois. By mid-afternoon a Tornado Watch was already in place with strong shear and some backing winds at the surface which surely couldn't be overlooked hence the reason for the Tornado Watch issuance. With that being said, even with moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico with 60-63°F dew points common; instability (CAPE) still lacked across the risk-area in west-central Illinois. Also, by mid-afternoon thanks to a strong low-level jet thunderstorms continued to erupt behind the cold front in Missouri and Iowa with the convective debris (anvil shadow(s)) overspreading the destabilizing area-of-interest. This really in turn limited the severe weather threat in my opinion as well as weak forcing. If we could have got surface temperatures into the 80's we might have had quite a severe weather outbreak on our hands locally. I traveled most of the day farther and farther south to try to tap more instability and deeper moisture and by 5:00pm I decided to give-up all-together on the day near Jacksonville, IL. It just didn't appear their was enough instability to get development ahead of the cold front yesterday. As I began the roughly 3-hour drive home...some storms started to get their act together as I neared Lincoln, IL to my west-southwest. Since these storms looked the best of the entire day I decided to drive right into them along I-74 as they traversed through Peoria, IL. At first glance driving into Peoria, IL these looked rather unorganized, but as I got right up next to them my opinion quickly changed. These storms quickly matured into a nice bow-echo feature on radar to my west/southwest. I quickly found an exit along I-74 to do some quick storm photography since this convection was hauling-a** at around 50mph. This feature actually was quite photogenic when it made its appearance a few miles away from my location. As this bow-echo passed to the northeast it quickly went severe-warned which didn't surprise me at all after observing it 20 minutes prior. After taking some photos and being somewhat happy to not leave the day empty-handed per-say I headed home for the night. Here are some photos below as the convection (becoming severe) approached Peoria, IL:

After a little (core-punching) I took this photo
at sunset behind the departing severe convection

Overall, this chase day was a disappointment and not what I had imagined the night before, but I'm happy I ended the day with some rather nice convection however. The fact that April is over and the "peak months" May and June are upon us doesn't make me dwell too much on this disappointing April I've had. Here's to adequate shear + rich-moisture + extreme instability, monster supercells, wedges, adequate storm speeds, and chase-able terrain that May and June has to offer...